9 Apr
2020
9 Apr
'20
5:34 a.m.
Hello every one,I hope you are all safe and doing well.I have two questions,1. Is there a
good color palette for color plotting velocity-time or velocity-depth sections in
seisview? Also Is there any instructions on how to bring newly created palettes to
seisview display settings menu?2. Are there any detailed instructions in su on how to
build needed tables and run kdmig2d and kdmig3d? İf yes, where?Stay safe.Sent via the
Samsung GALAXY S® 5, an AT&T 4G LTE smartphone
-------- Original message --------
From: John Stockwell <john.19071969(a)gmail.com>
Date: 4/5/20 21:38 (GMT+03:00)
To: seismic unix <seisunix(a)mailman.seismic-unix.org>
Subject: [Seisunix] Modeling Covid-19 with Seismic Unix
I send my good wishes to all of you and I hope that you, your families, and your friends
are faring well in this difficult time.For those who are interested in modeling
populations, such as the current epidemic, there is a logistic equation solver
called“verhulst” in the SU package which you may find of interest.For example for Covid-19
cases in the US, taking 22 January as day 0 of cases in the US and 29 February as day 0
for deaths. Respectivestepmax= values of 72 for cases and 34 for deaths are both 3
Aprilverhulst stepmax=72 h=1 a1=.176 y0=1 a2=1e7 mode=x > calculated_cases.binverhulst
stepmax=35 h=1 a1=.268 y0=1 a2=1e6 mode=x > calculated_deaths.binxgraph <
calculated_cases.bin n=72 nplot=1 d1=1 &xgraph < calculated_deaths.bin n=34 nplot=1
d1=1 &The growth rate a1 values are determined empirically from publicly available
data, in this case from the CDC and from the Worldometer site. You will have to make your
own estimate of a1 for the data that you are modeling.Another parameter that is harder to
get is an estimate of the carrying capacity of the system a2. Here I am assuming a maximum
of 1 million cases in the US and 100 thousand deaths.The number of new cases or deaths per
day is measured by the derivative of the solutions to the verhulst equationverhulst
stepmax=72 h=1 a1=.176 y0=1 a2=1e7 mode=y > delta_cases.binverhulst stepmax=35 h=1
a1=.268 y0=1 a2=1e6 mode=y > delta_deaths.binxgraph < delta_cases.bin n=72 nplot=1
d1=1 &xgraph < delta_deaths.bin n=34 nplot=1 d1=1 &The peak in the change of
the population per day occurs when the population reaches the exactly half of the carrying
capacity of the system. Thus, raising the carrying capacity will increase the height of
the peak and move it out later in time.Take care, everyone and stay safe.-JohnJohn
StockwellVisit: https://wiki.Seismic-Unix.orgThe new home of Seismic Un*x