I send my good wishes to all of you and I hope that you, your families, and your friends are faring well in this difficult time.
For those who are interested in modeling populations, such as the current epidemic, there is a logistic equation solver called “verhulst” in the SU package which you may find of interest.
For example for Covid-19 cases in the US, taking 22 January as day 0 of cases in the US and 29 February as day 0 for deaths. Respective stepmax= values of 72 for cases and 34 for deaths are both 3 April
verhulst stepmax=72 h=1 a1=.176 y0=1 a2=1e7 mode=x > calculated_cases.bin
verhulst stepmax=35 h=1 a1=.268 y0=1 a2=1e6 mode=x > calculated_deaths.bin
xgraph < calculated_cases.bin n=72 nplot=1 d1=1 &
xgraph < calculated_deaths.bin n=34 nplot=1 d1=1 &
The growth rate a1 values are determined empirically from publicly available data, in this case from the CDC and from the Worldometer site. You will have to make your own estimate of a1 for the data that you are modeling.
Another parameter that is harder to get is an estimate of the carrying capacity of the system a2. Here I am assuming a maximum of 1 million cases in the US and 100 thousand deaths.
The number of new cases or deaths per day is measured by the derivative of the solutions to the verhulst equation
verhulst stepmax=72 h=1 a1=.176 y0=1 a2=1e7 mode=y > delta_cases.bin
verhulst stepmax=35 h=1 a1=.268 y0=1 a2=1e6 mode=y > delta_deaths.bin
xgraph < delta_cases.bin n=72 nplot=1 d1=1 &
xgraph < delta_deaths.bin n=34 nplot=1 d1=1 &
The peak in the change of the population per day occurs when the population reaches the exactly half of the carrying capacity of the system. Thus, raising the carrying capacity will increase the height of the peak and move it out later in time.
Take care, everyone and stay safe.
-John
John Stockwell Visit: https://wiki.Seismic-Unix.org https://wiki.seismic-unix.org/ The new home of Seismic Un*x
Good to know John
Very intersting
Thanks
Em dom, 5 de abr de 2020 3:39 PM, John Stockwell john.19071969@gmail.com escreveu:
I send my good wishes to all of you and I hope that you, your families, and your friends are faring well in this difficult time.
For those who are interested in modeling populations, such as the current epidemic, there is a logistic equation solver called “verhulst” in the SU package which you may find of interest.
For example for Covid-19 cases in the US, taking 22 January as day 0 of cases in the US and 29 February as day 0 for deaths. Respective stepmax= values of 72 for cases and 34 for deaths are both 3 April
verhulst stepmax=72 h=1 a1=.176 y0=1 a2=1e7 mode=x > calculated_cases.bin
verhulst stepmax=35 h=1 a1=.268 y0=1 a2=1e6 mode=x > calculated_deaths.bin
xgraph < calculated_cases.bin n=72 nplot=1 d1=1 &
xgraph < calculated_deaths.bin n=34 nplot=1 d1=1 &
The growth rate a1 values are determined empirically from publicly available data, in this case from the CDC and from the Worldometer site. You will have to make your own estimate of a1 for the data that you are modeling.
Another parameter that is harder to get is an estimate of the carrying capacity of the system a2. Here I am assuming a maximum of 1 million cases in the US and 100 thousand deaths.
The number of new cases or deaths per day is measured by the derivative of the solutions to the verhulst equation
verhulst stepmax=72 h=1 a1=.176 y0=1 a2=1e7 mode=y > delta_cases.bin
verhulst stepmax=35 h=1 a1=.268 y0=1 a2=1e6 mode=y > delta_deaths.bin
xgraph < delta_cases.bin n=72 nplot=1 d1=1 &
xgraph < delta_deaths.bin n=34 nplot=1 d1=1 &
The peak in the change of the population per day occurs when the population reaches the exactly half of the carrying capacity of the system. Thus, raising the carrying capacity will increase the height of the peak and move it out later in time.
Take care, everyone and stay safe.
-John
John Stockwell Visit: https://wiki.Seismic-Unix.org The new home of Seismic Un*x _______________________________________________ Seisunix mailing list Seisunix@mailman.seismic-unix.org https://mailman.seismic-unix.org/listinfo/seisunix
Dear John,
Useful contribution to the understanding of the epidemiology of this disease.
I hope that all Seismic Unix family is safe and healthy
Juan
El dom., 5 abr. 2020 a las 14:53, Francisco Neto (fasn.ufpa@gmail.com) escribió:
Good to know John
Very intersting
Thanks
Em dom, 5 de abr de 2020 3:39 PM, John Stockwell john.19071969@gmail.com escreveu:
I send my good wishes to all of you and I hope that you, your families, and your friends are faring well in this difficult time.
For those who are interested in modeling populations, such as the current epidemic, there is a logistic equation solver called “verhulst” in the SU package which you may find of interest.
For example for Covid-19 cases in the US, taking 22 January as day 0 of cases in the US and 29 February as day 0 for deaths. Respective stepmax= values of 72 for cases and 34 for deaths are both 3 April
verhulst stepmax=72 h=1 a1=.176 y0=1 a2=1e7 mode=x > calculated_cases.bin
verhulst stepmax=35 h=1 a1=.268 y0=1 a2=1e6 mode=x > calculated_deaths.bin
xgraph < calculated_cases.bin n=72 nplot=1 d1=1 &
xgraph < calculated_deaths.bin n=34 nplot=1 d1=1 &
The growth rate a1 values are determined empirically from publicly available data, in this case from the CDC and from the Worldometer site. You will have to make your own estimate of a1 for the data that you are modeling.
Another parameter that is harder to get is an estimate of the carrying capacity of the system a2. Here I am assuming a maximum of 1 million cases in the US and 100 thousand deaths.
The number of new cases or deaths per day is measured by the derivative of the solutions to the verhulst equation
verhulst stepmax=72 h=1 a1=.176 y0=1 a2=1e7 mode=y > delta_cases.bin
verhulst stepmax=35 h=1 a1=.268 y0=1 a2=1e6 mode=y > delta_deaths.bin
xgraph < delta_cases.bin n=72 nplot=1 d1=1 &
xgraph < delta_deaths.bin n=34 nplot=1 d1=1 &
The peak in the change of the population per day occurs when the population reaches the exactly half of the carrying capacity of the system. Thus, raising the carrying capacity will increase the height of the peak and move it out later in time.
Take care, everyone and stay safe.
-John
John Stockwell Visit: https://wiki.Seismic-Unix.org The new home of Seismic Un*x _______________________________________________ Seisunix mailing list Seisunix@mailman.seismic-unix.org https://mailman.seismic-unix.org/listinfo/seisunix
Seisunix mailing list Seisunix@mailman.seismic-unix.org https://mailman.seismic-unix.org/listinfo/seisunix
Hi John,
SU is definitely full of unknown resources !!!
I hope everyone is as fine as possible, in these difficult times...
D. PS Don't forget that wiki.seismic-unix.org needs contributions !!!! Ask me for an account to write in the wiki...
Le 05/04/2020 à 20:38, John Stockwell a écrit :
I send my good wishes to all of you and I hope that you, your families, and your friends are faring well in this difficult time.
For those who are interested in modeling populations, such as the current epidemic, there is a logistic equation solver called “verhulst” in the SU package which you may find of interest.
For example for Covid-19 cases in the US, taking 22 January as day 0 of cases in the US and 29 February as day 0 for deaths. Respective stepmax= values of 72 for cases and 34 for deaths are both 3 April
verhulst stepmax=72 h=1 a1=.176 y0=1 a2=1e7 mode=x > calculated_cases.bin
verhulst stepmax=35 h=1 a1=.268 y0=1 a2=1e6 mode=x > calculated_deaths.bin
xgraph < calculated_cases.bin n=72 nplot=1 d1=1 &
xgraph < calculated_deaths.bin n=34 nplot=1 d1=1 &
The growth rate a1 values are determined empirically from publicly available data, in this case from the CDC and from the Worldometer site. You will have to make your own estimate of a1 for the data that you are modeling.
Another parameter that is harder to get is an estimate of the carrying capacity of the system a2. Here I am assuming a maximum of 1 million cases in the US and 100 thousand deaths.
The number of new cases or deaths per day is measured by the derivative of the solutions to the verhulst equation
verhulst stepmax=72 h=1 a1=.176 y0=1 a2=1e7 mode=y > delta_cases.bin
verhulst stepmax=35 h=1 a1=.268 y0=1 a2=1e6 mode=y > delta_deaths.bin
xgraph < delta_cases.bin n=72 nplot=1 d1=1 &
xgraph < delta_deaths.bin n=34 nplot=1 d1=1 &
The peak in the change of the population per day occurs when the population reaches the exactly half of the carrying capacity of the system. Thus, raising the carrying capacity will increase the height of the peak and move it out later in time.
Take care, everyone and stay safe.
-John
John Stockwell Visit: https://wiki.Seismic-Unix.org The new home of Seismic Un*x
Seisunix mailing list Seisunix@mailman.seismic-unix.org https://mailman.seismic-unix.org/listinfo/seisunix
Hi Dominique,
I am an intense SU user, and a CSM-Geop graduate, I would like to have an account. I put a paper together using SU package, it was published two years ago by Istanbul Uni. publication resources.
We are fine for now in Houston, TX.
Regards, Cemal
Cemal Erdemir Email: cerdemir@hotmail.com Cell: +1 832 668 6289 Office: +1 281 858 7653
________________________________ From: Seisunix seisunix-bounces@mailman.seismic-unix.org on behalf of Dominique ROUSSET dominique.rousset@univ-pau.fr Sent: Monday, April 6, 2020 2:18 AM To: seisunix@mailman.seismic-unix.org seisunix@mailman.seismic-unix.org Subject: Re: [Seisunix] Modeling Covid-19 with Seismic Unix
Hi John,
SU is definitely full of unknown resources !!!
I hope everyone is as fine as possible, in these difficult times...
D. PS Don't forget that wiki.seismic-unix.org needs contributions !!!! Ask me for an account to write in the wiki...
Le 05/04/2020 à 20:38, John Stockwell a écrit :
I send my good wishes to all of you and I hope that you, your families, and your friends are faring well in this difficult time.
For those who are interested in modeling populations, such as the current epidemic, there is a logistic equation solver called “verhulst” in the SU package which you may find of interest.
For example for Covid-19 cases in the US, taking 22 January as day 0 of cases in the US and 29 February as day 0 for deaths. Respective stepmax= values of 72 for cases and 34 for deaths are both 3 April
verhulst stepmax=72 h=1 a1=.176 y0=1 a2=1e7 mode=x > calculated_cases.bin
verhulst stepmax=35 h=1 a1=.268 y0=1 a2=1e6 mode=x > calculated_deaths.bin
xgraph < calculated_cases.bin n=72 nplot=1 d1=1 &
xgraph < calculated_deaths.bin n=34 nplot=1 d1=1 &
The growth rate a1 values are determined empirically from publicly available data, in this case from the CDC and from the Worldometer site. You will have to make your own estimate of a1 for the data that you are modeling.
Another parameter that is harder to get is an estimate of the carrying capacity of the system a2. Here I am assuming a maximum of 1 million cases in the US and 100 thousand deaths.
The number of new cases or deaths per day is measured by the derivative of the solutions to the verhulst equation
verhulst stepmax=72 h=1 a1=.176 y0=1 a2=1e7 mode=y > delta_cases.bin
verhulst stepmax=35 h=1 a1=.268 y0=1 a2=1e6 mode=y > delta_deaths.bin
xgraph < delta_cases.bin n=72 nplot=1 d1=1 &
xgraph < delta_deaths.bin n=34 nplot=1 d1=1 &
The peak in the change of the population per day occurs when the population reaches the exactly half of the carrying capacity of the system. Thus, raising the carrying capacity will increase the height of the peak and move it out later in time.
Take care, everyone and stay safe.
-John
John Stockwell Visit: https://wiki.Seismic-Unix.org The new home of Seismic Un*x
_______________________________________________ Seisunix mailing list Seisunix@mailman.seismic-unix.orgmailto:Seisunix@mailman.seismic-unix.org https://mailman.seismic-unix.org/listinfo/seisunix
-- |Dominique Rousset LFCR UMR5150 / E2S UPPA / Dpt des géosciences| |Univ. Pau et des Pays de l'Adour BP 1155 F-64013 Pau Cedex - France| |mailto:dominique.rousset@univ-pau.fr jami:drousset http://lfc.univ-pau.fr%7C |Off: +33 559 407 423|Cell: +33 660 861 391|xmpp: dominique@rousset.nom.fr|mailto:dominique@rousset.nom.fr|
seisunix@mailman.seismic-unix.org
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Cemal Erdemir -
Dominique ROUSSET -
Francisco Neto -
John Stockwell -
Juan Lorenzo Diaz Naveas